A SLOW START Nov 1, 2007 12:00 PM
, By the Multichannel Merchant Staff
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Fall arrived late this year for much of the country, and consumers are taking their time shopping for seasonal goods. And apparel catalogers are feeling the heat — they say that the warm weather in September and October suppressed sales.
Boston Proper, for one, blames the warm weather and a decline in consumer confidence for September sales that were below expectations. The women's apparel marketer saw revenue rise 15% on a 20% increase in circulated pages.
The merchant boosted circ by adding a fourth catalog to its fall mailings; it also increased the size of its house file after a strong spring/summer season, says senior vice president of merchandising Patty Martin. “We had an opportunity to balance out our seasons by growing the fall/holiday,” Martin says.
The warm weather may have helped Boston Proper sell more of its lightweight sweaters and knits, but Martin says sales of bottoms and outwear have been soft this season. And though she would not provide specifics, Martin noted that margins were up this fall, due to improved sourcing.
The overly warm September weather “maybe hurt us a little bit,” says Jim Klaus, president of children's clothing catalog Children's Wear Digest. “We were doing better through Labor Day, ahead of where we thought we'd be, and then we gave some of it back.”
Children's Wear Digest's fall sales are “essentially flat,” says Klaus, which was “pretty much on plan.” The merchant reduced its catalog circulation by 5%-7%. “Due to the postal increase, we had a decline in prospecting, and an increase in Internet as a percentage of our sales,” he says.
Shoppers not ready for holiday
But the slow takeoff to the season isn't just about the weather. As much as merchants try to encourage holiday shopping earlier and earlier, consumers are getting increasingly determined to buy later in the season.
Research firm NPD Group reports that 41% of consumers surveyed don't plan to start their holiday shopping until after Thanksgiving — 10% more than said the same last year.
It may be too early for many consumers to think about buying toys: FAO Schwarz's catalog and Internet year-to-date sales are up 13%, but that's below company expectations. “The fall has been tough,” says FAO's CEO Ed Schmults, as myriad grim economic news occurred almost daily. “You had the subprime mortgage crisis and the Asian toy crisis that the media reported on almost daily.” The only toy affected at FAO by the Asian recall was the Thomas the Tank Engine truck, he says.
For the direct division, Schmults expects sales increases north of 40%. “Our biggest catalog drops are ahead of us,” he says, “as buyers are buying later and later into the holiday season.”
Accordingly, FAO has three additional in-home mail dates planned for closer to Christmas. FAO, which does 71% of its direct business on the Web, will mail 6 million catalogs, vs. 5 million books during the fall period.
Schmults says the direct sales shortfall is due to changes FAO made in its spring books. The company opted to mail smaller, 12-page books more frequently (every month from April through July) to reach customers more often.
“We are working hard to wean some of our customers off of a ‘holiday only’ mentality regarding FAO Schwarz,” Schmults says. But these smaller books “did not have the sales impact of a larger, 48-page catalog.”
Still, FAO's overall fall has not been as robust as it hoped. While its two stores posted bigger gains — 26% in the New York store year-to-date over last year, and up 9% for the Las Vegas location — these results are also slightly below plan, Schmults says.
The Williamsburg catalog's fall sales have so far increased from last year, but it may fall short of its plan. The cataloger of home decor, and furnishings from the historic Virginia site may have jumped the gun on Christmas goods a little too soon, says Williamsburg's director of multichannel marketing, Tammy Kersey.
“Some of our conversations [in October] have been about when we should hit our customers with holiday product,” Kersey says. “Holiday merchandise was a strong seller in the fall, but maybe this year we should have been more transitional, and not as much red and green.”
To pick up the fall slack, Kersey says the third holiday drop will focus more on gifts. “We realize we didn't do enough of that last year,” she says. “We're a home brand, so we have to push gifts better. It's what our customers are looking for, and should be our bread and butter.”
Sticking to the season at hand may have helped Yankee Candle Co: The mailer's fall sales rose in the double-digit range, says senior vice president of brand, marketing, and innovation Richard Ruffolo.
“We added several great new scents including Pomegranate Cider, Fall Festival, and Frosted Pumpkin to our already strong lineup of fall classics such as Macintosh, Spiced Pumpkin, Harvest, and Autumn Wreath,” Ruffolo says.
Although he would not disclose circulation, Ruffolo says that Yankee Candle's marketing strategy across channels has remained “relatively consistent from previous years with a focus on the fall seasonal fragrances, our Halloween collection, and continued use of catalog, e-mail, and CRM mailings.”
